In the Fifth Edition of PMI’s PMBOK (Project Management Body of Knowledge) Guide (© 2013 PMI®, Inc.) there is a good comparison (see Figure 11-13 on page 336 and Figure 11-17 on page 340) of the differences between using “Expert Judgment” and “Monte Carlo Simulations” to arrive at the range of overall Project Costs for… Continue reading Comparison of Overall Project Risk Assessments Using Expert Judgment Versus Monte Carlo Simulations
Do you realize that there is only one (yes, just ONE) Valid Way to effectively manage Project Schedule Risk? This should not be a surprise to anyone up the management ranks in organizations that conduct complex/risky product development projects/programs and profess to practice sound Project Management practices. Every certified PMP (Project Management Professional)… Continue reading If You Develop Products and/or Services and You Cannot Afford to Miss Project Delivery Commitments You Must Do This!
Here are the quick answers: When? Ideally, before and after kicking off projects with schedule commitments that are highly scrutinized (i.e., for most important time-sensitive projects with deterministic requirements). Why? To manage project schedule risk in the most effective way (i.e., SRAs are proven to be the best tools and techniques to employ… Continue reading When Why and How do We Use Project SRA Output Data?
I recently received the following question about Chrono™, the new Project/Program/Portfolio Management tool released by my company, RTConfidence: “What are the benefits of this tool and why is it different from its competitors?” Here was my reply: “Most significantly, this tool solves some major problems in the Project/Program/Portfolio Management space. Today, the best tools… Continue reading Why Chrono?
If you, your employees, or your suppliers are using Microsoft Project and use another program or application to run SRA (Schedule Risk Analysis) Monte Carlo simulations, you should down-load and try the Chrono™ add-in – a revolutionary offering from RTConfidence.com. You will not regret it – it is not only easier to use than any… Continue reading Level-up Microsoft Project!
Going back about thirty years when I was a relatively new Program Manager, I was given an interesting proposition by my manager – “We want you to take on a new project that the executive team knows will be impossible to execute successfully, but it is strategically important, and we would like you to run… Continue reading “Solving the Impossible” – Find out how!
What would I (or you) be able to do if the IMS (Integrated Master Schedule) SRA (Schedule Risk Analysis) Model was always set up properly and the Monte Carlo Simulation only took a few seconds to both compute results and provide all the graphic outputs (e.g., the Probability Distribution charts for every task and milestone,… Continue reading The things I could do if my SRA Monte Carlo Simulation was faster!
If someone asks you “How long will it take for you to drive home from the grocery store?” you could probably give a very accurate estimate, especially if you made that drive many times before. If they ask you “How long will it take you to fix the facet?”, (and you don’t even know what’s… Continue reading What does a 3-Point Estimate Give Me?
Project management would be a lot easier if our original plans were accurate and reliable. This is relatively easy when it comes to follow-on production or deployment of a well-established repeat services. It gets progressively more difficult as the complexity and risk associated with development projects increases. In certain organizations, a top-down estimate suffices. In… Continue reading Why Good Estimating practices are so important to project risk management.